Wake up!
The
problem is most people do not realize that your average gambler is going to
lose. Breaking down the numbers it takes
exactly a 52.5% winning average on games in order for you to profit. That is assuming every bet you make has a 10%
juice and we know that is not always the case.
Many say you need approximately 55-56% to sustain a true profit. But then again, at even a $100 a bet you are
only cashing $25 at 52.5% and $550 at 55%.
That would mean you have wagered approximately $11,000 in order to win
$25 or $550. I know I know, at least you
made money and spent the time having fun while winning right? Keep fooling yourself and stop wasting your
time. See the chart below:
WIN %
|
53%
|
52.5%
|
52%
|
WINS
|
5300
|
5250
|
5200
|
LOSSES
|
5170
|
5225
|
5280
|
PROFIT
|
130.00
|
25.00
|
(80.00)
|
So
if all you need is 52.5% why on earth are people still losing money? Part of this is because so many people play
various amounts per play based upon their feeling or what someone says they are
playing. 25 unit bomb! 50 unit play of the century! The other factors are people who chase bets
by doubling up their wagers to cancel previous losses, playing catch up from
huge debt, or simply to get ahead quickly.
Now
do not get me wrong, I understand that people like certain picks more than
others, that we fear losing, and that we fear debt; but in gambling anything is
possible. As we said before, the key is
consistency in riding out low times and knowing when to walk away.
Bankroll
In
order to calculate what a unit represents we need to consider your bankroll.
What is the most amount of money you are able to lose without having to worry
about paying bills? For others, what is
the most amount of money you are willing to risk that you can be able to pay or
put down for all bets before you have nothing (Not recommended but represents
many gamblers)?
Once
you have determined the entire sum of money you have, you have established your
entire bankroll that you should not wager more than for a time period (season,
year, month). Next we need to determine
what your unit amounts will be per wager.
Unit Amounts
Some will say a unit should consist of 1-3%
of your bankroll. On a $1000 a unit would be $10-30. For a $10,000
budget your unit would be $100-300. So your first bet would be $10 x UNIT
VALUE. Let us take a look at both the Flat Betting System and the
Cancellation System:
Flat
Betting System
ONE. 1-3% means 1-3%. It really is imperative you come up with the
total amount of money you can risk each month.
In doing so, you are able to target what 1-3% really is and be able to
sustain your gambling fun through rough stretches and ride high on winning streaks.
Example 1
o
$1000
a month would give you $10-30 a unit
o
$500
a month would give you $5-15 a unit
o
$100
a month would give you $1-3 (not sure where you can place these bets)
Not the most glamorous idea when gambling
but you have got to play smart. Yes, I
know you could follow one of those 25 unit wagers out there, win, and get up
large. But then again, you could also
follow and lose two straight killing your bankroll and chance to win it back.
TWO.
When you should increase your wager?
When you have won twice as much as your budget then you can consider increasing
your wagers. I have heard many cappers
waiting until later in the season when they have capped +100 units before
increasing wager amount. This makes
complete sense as you now have twice the budget. When you have twice your budget you can then
double your original unit size as 1-3% has now changed in regards to your new
bankroll. When that doubles, you can
then double your wager again.
Just think about hitting +100 units and then
doubling and hitting +100 units again. $30
bet of a $1000 bankroll you would then move to $60
Doubling
Up - $1000 bankroll/$30 bet
o
+100
units ◄ $2000 bankroll/$60 bet
o
+100
units ◄ $4000 bankroll/$120 bet
o
+100
units ◄ $8000 bankroll/ $240 bet
o
In
time, your $30 wager could be $240 and have 8x your original bankroll
o
Patience
and consistency is the key (not to mention straight winning!)
Cancellation System
ONE. I would
half my percentage of typical units (1-3% becomes 0.5-1.5%) This is
because we play a lot of games and do not want to over expose ourselves.
$1000 becomes $5-15 so a 5 unit bet would be $25-75. $10,000 would be
$50-150. The largest I have had to bet on a game in a series was 9 units
($45-135 or $225-$675) on two games in a row with our series. Can you
stomach that? Read on to see how I account for this and minimize large
wagers.
TWO. A series works because you can make a coup if you continue on until finishing the number line. But, I say why continue on making huge wagers when you can get out with a slight profit or loss and just create a new line? You will see how I minimize losses from bad series. See the examples below:
TWO. A series works because you can make a coup if you continue on until finishing the number line. But, I say why continue on making huge wagers when you can get out with a slight profit or loss and just create a new line? You will see how I minimize losses from bad series. See the examples below:
Example 1
o
1,
2, 3, 4
o
Lose
-5.5 (4+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
o
Win
6 (5+1) ◄ 2, 3, 4
o
Loss
-6.6 (4+2) ◄ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
Win
8 (6+2) ◄ 3, 4, 5
o
-5.5
+ 6 -6.6 + 8 = +1.9 unit profit
o
QUIT
and start new series ◄
1, 2, 3, 4
o
If
you were to continue the series your next wager would be 8 units (5+2) or 5
units if you decided to start a new series.
o
I
would still consider this a coup (completion) and another
profitable day.
o
If
you lose the next bet you are losing only -5.5 and betting 6 units next versus
10 units if you lose the 7 unit bet.
Example
2
o
1,
2, 3, 4
o
Lose
-5.5 (4+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
o
Loss
-6.6 (5+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
Loss
-7.7 (6+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
7
o
Win
8 (7+1) ◄ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
Win
8 (6+2) ◄ 3, 4
o
-5.5
– 6.6 – 7.7 + 8 + 8 = -3.8 units
o
QUIT
and start new series: 16 units - 19.8 units = -3.8 units
o
You
could continue on but 3 series of 8 unit bets or more could be disastrous.
o
You
could take your lumps, move on to a new series, and start all again with 5
units.
o
Even
with a loss at -5 units would have you betting 6 units
o
If
you had continued the line and lost, next bet would be 11 (8+3)
THREE. You can always
make your first wager in the series line as being the 1-3%. For instance if 1-3% equals $20 then a 5 unit
bet would be $20 ($20/5 = $4 a unit). If
you are to wager 6 units then it would be $24.
You do not have to bet $50 a unit or wager $250 on a 5 unit bet to be
profitable.
Example 1
o
$50 = 5 unit wager
o
$50/5 = $10 a unit
o
7 unit bet = (7 x 10) = $70
Example 2
o
$100 = 5 unit wager
o
$100/5 = $20 a unit
o
7 unit bet = (7 x 20) = $140
FOUR. Change up your
line. Worried about your wager becoming too
high or not being able to pay off the debt from several losses? Then stay away from simply series lines like
1, 2, 3, 4 as they move quickly towards doubling up unit size and will eat into
your bankroll much quicker. Instead use
a series such as:
Example 1
o
0.5, 0.5, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5
o
1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3
o
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
These provide n opportunity to rise out several consecutive game losing streaks without getting you into much trouble with unit size and deb.
1,
2, 3, 4
o
Lose
-5.5 (4+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
o
Loss
-6.6 (5+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
Loss
-7.7 (6+1) ◄ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,
7
o
-5.5
– 6.6 – 7.7 = -19.8 units
o
Next
3 wagers are 8 units
o
Win
8 (7+1) ◄ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
Win
8 (6+2) ◄ 3, 4, 5
o
Win
8 (5+3) ◄ 4
o
While
not necessarily a bad thing we want to limit exposure
o
Take
a look at a new series line to limit that exposure
1,
1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
o
Lose
-4.4 (3+1) ◄ 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2,
3, 3, 3, 4
o
Loss
-5.5 (4+1) ◄ 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2,
3, 3, 3, 4, 5
o
Loss
-6.6 (5+1) ◄ 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2,
3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6
o
-4.4
- 5.5 – 6.6 = -16.5 units
o
Next
wager is 7 units (6+1)
o
Win
7 (6+1) ◄ 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
o
Win
6 (5+1) ◄ 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4
o
Win
5 (4+1) ◄ 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
o
Note
how we cancel out our debt in 3 games like the other series?
o
However
see how we are progressively decreasing out unit size with this series and
limiting our exposure with regards to our initial wager?
o
And,
you could always stop after three wins and move to a new series
The
trick is consistency in placing bets so that you do not go overboard on any one
game. Once you understand the importance
of sticking to your limit it is time to start talking about defending your
money. Exactly what I said defending
your money. Are you still
sticking money under mattress or putting it in a bank or other financial
institute to make you more money? Too
many people throw money at games without strategy other than the fact they like
the game and never think twice about budgeting.
Ever lose more than you wanted to in Vegas in a single day?
Series
Play
In
addition to understanding sessions you need to understand series wagering. When I go to Vegas and gamble I use several
strategies for playing cards that can be used for sports betting as well and
the most popular one is called series betting.
Whenever
you start your session you must understand that there are ups and downs in
gambling and this is why series wagering comes into play. I always assume that there are streaks in
gambling not matter if you are playing cards or betting sports. That being said, every time you win a game a
new series is created. The idea is be
able to walk away from that series up.
The more series you win the more money you will have made. There are two ideas on the series wagering:
1. Streak Betting /
Pull System
- Consider the first bet until a win a new series
- When you WIN leave the amount up for bet
- Bet $25 ◄ WIN $25 Next bet $50
- Bet $50 ◄ WIN Next bet will be $50; pocket $50
- Worst case scenario is that you break even on next bet
- Bet $50 ◄ WIN Next bet will be $50 or $75; pocket $25/$50
- You should now have $75/$100 in the series
- Regardless of next bet you have won $$$ this series
- If I am winning I would press $75 and have pocketed $75
- Bet $75 ◄ WIN Next bet will be $75 or $100; pocket $50 or $75
- Streaks are nice to keep increasing wager
- However, if you believe in playing safe just pull entire $75
- Pocketed $200 by this time
- Series like these make up for new series that lose initially
- Note some people will never progress past 3-4 times their initial to limit the random chance of losing and maximizing profit for series
- Should you lose 3-4 consecutive series (-$25, -$25, -$25,-$25) in a row you should consider simply walking away and calling this series a bust
- By walking away you protect your bankroll and leave the remaining for another session
- Ride out the bad streak and avoid getting emotional and pressing bets in bad situations
